another hurricane...

[Conman]

... I can virtually guarantee that we're not going to learn a darn thing from this.

DRRRRTTTT!! Wrong! :razz: Seems obvious that some peeps are learning how to profit-take real fast and really fast.

 

[mindido]

Con,

"some peeps are learning how to profit-take real fast and really fast."

You are right about that. I was just thinking about things constructive and smart. Human beings seem to have an unbelievable capacity for learning and accepting the dark side.

 

[Iceberg]

"Louisiana senator: Thank you Canada":

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2005/09/08/louisiana_canada_thanks_20050909.html

What a sad state of affairs when the "sad-sack" Canadian military reaches the opposite side of the US (over 1000 miles away) even before US troops get there. Five days, no less.

Makes me proud to be Canadian, but also makes me feel sorrow for those who weren't helped sooner.

 

[gatsby]

"so it would be useless to rebuild it in the exact place."

Not rebuilding New Orleans would be a shame unless there is no other option. History is what makes places like New Orleans special. Rebuilding it elsewhere would create a soulless new city.

 

[mindido]

gatsby,

So what do you suggest? For the most part, I really like N.O., and have had many a good time there, but how many times should we go through this? We're going to spend at least $200 billion just to clean up the current mess and at least double that wherever we choose to rebuild. So we're probably looking at between $400 to $600 billion total. Additionally, we're probably going to lose 10,000 or more lives and the environmental costs from releasing that toxic soup back into the gulf are going to be tremendous. Fishermen, clammers, oyster farmers and others are going to be out of work for years.

And please remember, no matter what the pols and bureaucrats are saying on the tube, this was not the worst case scenario (at least for N.O.). Katrina was a Cat 4 (by the time it hit land) and veered off to the east and missed the city by 30 to 45 miles. If Katrina had hit the city, N.O. would look like Gulfport or Biloxi and instead of a few thousand dead, we'd be talking about 100,000 dead. Does it make sense to put N.O. back the way it was? I don't think so.

As I said previously, some parts of the city should be kept. The French Quarter and the port, but thats about it. If we rebuild N.O., we will see the same thing again. There is NO doubt about that.

So what do you suggest?

 

[Gibson]

How about replacing the horribly out of date levies? Correct me if I'm wrong (seriously), but wasn't New Orleans in relatively good shape until the levy broke?

 

[cableguy]

the only way to fix the levy problem is to COMPLETELY bypass louisiana politicians... that money has been allocated and misdirected so many times, it boggles the mind...

 

[RichieTBaum]

With all of this devastation and loss, you'd think that no good could possibly come out of it.
To the contrary, I saw a local news report about a homeless man that had been transferred by bus to Michigan. He currently resides at a military base where he gets shelter, food, and company. He probably had nothing to lose in the hurricane so anything he gets now is an improvement over his previous situation. I wonder if this type of thing has occured frequently over the past week.

 

[mindido]

Gibson,

I don't know if you've ever been to N.O. so let me give you a brief description. The levees I've seen there are probably no more than 20 ft. tall (some are less), about 60 ft. wide at the base and maybe 10 to 15 ft. wide at the top (most all that I've seen have a one lane road on top). These were designed to withstand a Cat 3. I don't know how long the levees are but I think a fair guess would be at least 30 to 40 miles worth as they are on all of the canal sides, the Mississippi side and all along Lake Pontchatrain.

Since I have a Civil Engineering background I think I can generalize fairly accurately about designing for a Cat 5. First off, I have to say that I don't know that a levee, or much of anything else, can be designed to survive a direct hit from a Cat 5. When I was in school 20 years ago the general thought was that most structures, even if designed for a Cat 5, would probably be lucky to survive a direct hit. There are a lot of variables, but the general idea is that 155+ m.p.h. winds in the storm switch directions. It is very difficult to design something that can withstand those type of winds from many different directions.

Then theres the storm surge. Katrina was Cat 4 when she hit land and it appears that she was carrying a 10 to 30 ft. surge when she hit Biloxi and Gulfport. Cat 5's can carry surges of 50 ft. or higher.

OK. Try and design something to withstand those. An educated guess would indicate that the height of the levee is going to have to be at least 60 ft. tall (and thats really a bit low, it would probably have to be at least 70 ft.). That would indicate that the base is going to have to be at least 150 ft. (and probably closer to 200 ft.) wide with the top being at least 30 to 40 ft. wide (more than enough for a very wide 2 lane road and bike paths).

Now imagine that you have to build 40 miles of this. Basically, a 7 to 8 story building that is 40 miles long. Many, many, many homes adjacent to the levee would have to be leveled and the course of the Mississippi would have to be changed (at least if you want to keep the French Quarter). On top of that you have to factor in the levees weight. Remember that N.O. is built on silt and is sinking about 1/8 in. per year. The weight of the levee would probably increase compaction of the silt thus accelerating the sinking. So, every few years, you would have to tear up the road on top of the levee, increase the height another foot or so, and then build another road.

The cost of this? I don't know but certainly many, many billions of dollars. The feds last year had allocated $14 billion to shore up parts of the current levee and start to restore wetlands to the south but that was cut by the administration.

"wasn't New Orleans in relatively good shape until the levy broke?"

Thats a pretty broad question and I'm not sure how to respond. Certain parts of N.O. were in good condition but many areas are really poor. One thing that I do remember about the city was quite interesting. One of the main thoroughfares there is St. Charles Ave. (I'm pretty sure thats the name). It has these beautiful old anti-bellum mansions and huge old trees lining each side with the trolleys going down the middle of the avenue. Its a normal tourist destination. But what most people don't do is go around the corner behind those mansions. When you do go around the corner you find these little, decrepit shacks that makes you wonder if people really live there. But they do.

N.O. is a city of real contrasts. Hope that gives you an idea about the levees.

 

[Gibson]

Mindido:

Thanks for the info. I've never been to N.O., or even outside Canada for that matter.

 

[mindido]

Gibson,

No problem, but do remember that my description is an educated guess. I'll do some additional research to see how accurate it is. And depending on what actually emerges from all this, I would recommend anyone visit N.O. at least once. It really is a unique city where you can have a really good time. But also remember not to take anything of value as there are lots of thieves in that city. I learned that lesson the hard way.

Some additional info. Maybe there is some hope that people are getting smarter:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050909/ap_on_re_us/katrina_ap_poll_hk1

Also. Thinking of padding the old resume a little bit? It appears that Mike Brown (the current head of FEMA that is under relentless criticism for his response to the situation) did a bit of that. It appears he got the job because of his friendship with one of Bush's campaign advisors. Not for having any actual experience in the disaster field.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1103003,00.html

 

[mindido]

This is a bit longer than anticipated, but......

Gibson,

It appears I was a bit off in parts of my guesstimate.

The highest levee in N.O. that I could find is 18.5 ft.according to the Corps of Engineers (the average seems to be between 6 to 12 ft) and instead of 30 to 40 miles of levees, there are 350 miles :

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/response/amaps.asp

I found little on the actual dimensions needed to withstand a Cat 5 but the dimensions I quoted in the previous post appear fairly accurate. I found a forum where a group of engineers were discussing the issue:

http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=133257&page=1
http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=133153&page=1

A little bit about the levees history from National Geographic:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/09/0902_050902_katrina_levees.html

A few interesting articles on funding problems and subsidence.

http://alternet.org/story/24871/
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050905/ap_on_re_us/katrina_corps_spending
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec05/levees_8-31.html

Found this and had to include it in its entirety. From:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

My colleague, Ed Hegstrom, shared an excerpt from Mark Twain's "Life on the Mississippi" with me this afternoon. The book's discussion of the Army Corps of Engineers, published in 1883, only affirm's Twain's brilliance:

"The military engineers of the Commission have taken upon their shoulders the job of making the Mississippi over again -- a job transcended in size by only the original job of creating it.

They are building wing-dams here and there, to deflect the current; and dikes to confine it in narrower bounds; and other dikes to make it stay there; and for unnumbered miles along the Mississippi, they are felling the timber-front for fifty yards back, with the purpose of shaving the bank down to low-water mark with the slant of a house roof, and ballasting it with stones; and in many places they have protected the wasting shores with rows of piles.

One who knows the Mississippi will promptly aver -- not aloud, but to himself -- that ten thousand River Commissions, with the mines of the world at their back, cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or confine it, cannot say to it, Go here, or Go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has sentenced; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down, dance over, and laugh at.

But a discreet man will not put these things into spoken words; for the West Point engineers have not their superiors anywhere; they know all that can be known of their abstruse science; and so, since they conceive that they can fetter and handcuff that river and boss him, it is but wisdom for the unscientific man to keep still, lie low, and wait till they do it.

Captain Eads, with his jetties, has done a work at the mouth of the Mississippi which seemed clearly impossible; so we do not feel full confidence now to prophesy against like impossibilities.

Otherwise one would pipe out and say the Commission might as well bully the comets in their courses and undertake to make them behave, as try to bully the Mississippi into right and reasonable conduct."

Of course Twain was talking about levees along the Mississippi, not those protecting the city from Lake Pontchartrain.

But the analysis is eerie all the same.

 

[mindido]

Heh, heh,

It appears there was something to the Time article afterall! After vehement denials by the Bush admin. that the article was biased and had no truth whatsoever, Mike Brown is being replaced and sent back to Washington effective about 12:45 p.m. today.

 

[Iceberg]

An excellent article on the situation New Orleans was in prior to Katrina:

http://www.sciam.com/print_version.cfm?articleID=00060286-CB58-1315-8B5883414B7F0000

The article was published in 2001 and sounded off the warning bells almost four years before Katrina, yet no money was being put towards building levees that could withstand a Category 5 hurricane.

Now, this is a colossal failure of leadership that Bush didn't set aside a couple of billion to secure the city, yet finds it in his budget to give a $250 million bridge to an island in Alaska with a population of 50 residents. What a load of horseshit Congress and the Senate, as well as the White House has become under Bush.

 

[Texan]

Good lord Ice, the problem with N.O. has been known for decades, give it a rest.

 

[Iceberg]

Yes, it has been known, but nothing was done to help the city survive a hurricane like Katrina. When the availability of funds was there, nothing was done.

Now, the waste money of the Bush Administration on such frivolous matters (the bridge and others) could have been used to build up the levee and save the city.

This is not to say that other presidents couldn't have done the same. However, since far more presidents in the last three decades have been Republican (since 1970, the Rs have had presidents for 5 1/2 terms in office while the Ds have had 3 1/2 terms), the blame lies in the R camp more than the D.

Less blame should be placed on Clinton, though, since he was unable to do anything substantial after the Lewinsky "scandal" broke, because Republicans were thinking everything he did (even matters concerning Osama bin Laden and Al'Qaeda) was a diversion of attention from the "scandal" at hand. (Kenneth Starr and Linda Tripp, especially, should burn in hell.)

 

[Graywolf]

Katrina - Thr Real Truth

Politics over duty



This is a post from a fellow over in Merritt Is, FL, a reporter who's been researching what went on before the storm hit

I think all of Nagin's pomp and posturing is going to bite him hard in the near future as the lies and distortions of his interviews are coming to light.

On Friday night before the storm hit Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center took the unprecedented action of calling Nagin and Blanco personally to plead with them to begin MANDATORY evacuation of New Orleans and they said they'd take it under consideration. This was after the NOAA buoy 240 miles south had recorded 68' waves before it was destroyed.

President Bush spent Friday afternoon and evening in meetings with his advisors and administrators drafting all of the paperwork required for a state to request federal assistance (and not be in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act or having to enact the Insurgency Act).



Just before midnight
Friday evening the President called Governor Blanco and pleaded with her to sign the request papers so the federal government and the military could legally begin mobilization and call up.


He was told that they didn't think
it necessary for the federal government to be involved yet. After the President's final call to the governor she held meetings with her staff to discuss the political ramifications of bringing federal forces. It was decided that if they allowed federal assistance it would make it look as if they had failed so it was agreed upon that the feds would not be invited in.

Saturday before the storm hit the President again called Blanco and Nagin requesting they please sign the papers requesting federal assistance, that they declare the state an emergency area, and begin mandatory evacuation.


After a personal plea from the President, Mayor Nagin agreed to order an
evacuation, but it would not be a full mandatory evacuation, and the governor still refused to sign the papers requesting and authorizing federal action.


In frustration the President declared the area a national disaster

area before the state of Louisiana did so he could legally begin some advanced preparations. Rumor has it that the President's legal advisers were looking into the ramifications of using the insurgency act to bypass the Constitutional requirement that a state request federal aid before the federal government can move into state with troops - but that had not been done since 1906 and the Constitutionality of it was called into question to use before the disaster.

Throw in that over half the federal aid of the past decade to New Orleans for levee construction, maintenance, and repair was diverted to fund a marina and support the gambling ships.


Toss in the investigation that will look into why the emergency

preparedness plan submitted to the federal government for funding and published on the city's website was never implemented and in fact may have been bogus for the purpose of gaining additional federal funding as we now learn that the organizations identified in the plan were never contacted or coordinating into any planning - though the document implies that they were.

The suffering people of New Orleans need to be asking some hard questions as do we all, but they better start with why Blanco refused to even sign the multi-state mutual aid pack activation documents until Wednesday which further delayed the legal deployment of National Guard from adjoining states.


Or maybe ask why Nagin keeps harping that the President should

have commandeered 500 Greyhound busses to help him when according to his own emergency plan and documents he claimed to have over 500 busses at his disposal to use between the local school busses and the city transportation busses - but he never raised a finger to prepare them or activate them.

This is a sad time for all of us to see that a major city has all but been destroyed and thousands of people have died with hundreds of thousands more suffering, but it's certainly not a time for people to be pointing fingers and trying to find a bigger dog to blame for local corruption and incompetence. Pray to God for the survivors that they can start their lives anew as fast as possible and we learn from all the mistakes to avoid them in the future.

 

[utfan27]

First time I've been back in months and all I can do is shake my head in amazement. I'm not a regular contributor and I know my opinion is about as valuable's as anyone else's, but it's amazing how quickly people use this to justify their political views. It wasn't Bush's fault, just like it wouldn't have been Clinton's fault if this had happened in the 90's. Was FEMA too slow? Probably, and we can debate that forever, but where were the plans to evacuate people? They had several busses for this reason and they were never used. I think there is enough blame to go around, but I'm not letting the mayor and local govt there slide either. And keep in mind as bad as New Orleans has it, other states got fucked too, especially Mississippi. Keep these people in your thoughts and prayers as well. I'm not trying to get preachy, but man, if you've paid attention to stuff happening the last few years, if these events can't be labeled as biblical, I don't know what can.

Went to New Orlean's a few years ago, and thought it was one of the most unique places I've ever been. God bless everybody down there, and to all the members with family there, I hope everyone is ok.

 

[mindido]

greywolf,

I think that if that was done by a reporter, he's a pretty poor one as there are several glaring inaccuracies in there, it looks like it was actually written by the RNC. And we all know how much "truth" comes out of such a place.

"On Friday night before the storm hit Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center..."

Mr. Mayfield has been on the news a lot over the last few days. That conversation was on Saturday night. On Friday night it was still unclear where Katrina was headed so a mandatory evac. would have been unwarranted.

"President Bush spent Friday afternoon and evening in meetings with his advisors and administrators drafting all of the paperwork required for a state to request federal assistance"

It is up to the State to draft the State of Emergency declaration and the request for federal assistance. Bush's job is to review the request and either approve or deny it. Its worked that way for years.

I could go on but I'm running out of time this a.m. The bottom line is this report appears to be completely political, and probably written by Tom Delays office. There is plenty of blame to go around and, hopefully, we will learn the truth eventually.

 

[Preferred User]

US response to Katrina and New O.